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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-06-08T01:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-06-08T01:53Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/31346/-1
CME Note: Large halo CME visible in STEREO A COR2 and SOHO LASCO C2 and C3 imagery. The source appears to be two back-to-back M-class flares from AR13697 with associated dimming signature to the north as well as nice filament ejecta to the west and north. Post-eruptive arcades are beginning to show in SDO/AIA 193. There is a large EUV wave associated with this event, as best seen in SDO/AIA 211.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-06-10T16:36Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-06-10T06:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-06-08T04:39Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 1154
Longitude (deg): 032W
Latitude (deg): 3S
Half-angular width (deg): 48

Notes: Average of three forecasters' fits, all with reasonable agreement. Possibly double lobed event, with both shocks intersecting Sun-Earth line. MOSWOC Enlil background wind an presence/treatment of CH42/+ generally felt to be good, hence suggested arrival of 10/0600UTC accepted, and error bars probably confining arrival to within UTC morning. Main uncertainty is level of impact from what appear to be shocks, although event itself was sizeable. G2 felt to  be best estimate.
Space weather advisor: Michael Lawrence, also KW, TG.

Lead Time: 52.83 hour(s)
Difference: 10.60 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2024-06-08T11:46Z

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